1.
Which of the following is not a feature common to all forecasting models?
A.
This period's forecast error is needed to compute next period's forecast.
B.
Forecasts are rarely perfect.
C.
Forecasts are more accurate for groups of items rather than for individual items.
D.
Forecasts are more accurate for shorter rather than for longer time horizons.
E.
All of these features are common to all forecasting models.


2.
Which of the following is not a qualitative forecasting method?
A.
Delphi
B.
Executive opinion
C.
Market research
D.
Sacred cow


3.
Which forecasting method seeks to develop a consensus among a group of experts?
A.
Market research
B.
Executive opinion
C.
Delphi method
D.
Naïve method
E.
Gamma method


4.
Which forecasting method assumes that next period's forecast is equal to this period's actual value?
A.
Simple mean
B.
Ignorant
C.
Basic
D.
Naïve
E.
Nescient


5.
Economics indicates that the world economy fluctuates over the long term. What type of data pattern would this be?
A.
cycles
B.
linear
C.
seasonal
D.
level
E.
horizontal


6.
The best model to forecast random variation is:
A.
Delphi
B.
linear regression
C.
moving average
D.
cannot forecast random variation
E.
multi-regression


7.
Suppose that you are using the simple mean to make a forecast. This period's forecast was equal to 100 units, and it was based on 6 periods of demand. This period's actual demand was 86 units. What is your forecast for next period?
A.
98
B.
100
C.
93
D.
86
E.
Not enough information is given to answer the question.


8.
In exponential smoothing, which of the following values for α would generate the most stable forecast?
A.
0.10
B.
0.25
C.
0.50
D.
0.75
E.
1.00


9.
What value of the correlation coefficient implies that there is no relationship between the two variables of a linear regression model?
A.
–1
B.
0
C.
0.5
D.
1
E.


10.
Which of the following is true with respect to the correlation coefficient r?
A.
r2r
B.
r2 ≤ | r |
C.
r2r
D.
r2 ≥ | r |
E.
r2 can never equal r


11.
Suppose that you are using the four-period simple moving average method to forecast sales, and sales have been increasing by 20% every period. How will your forecasts perform?
A.
Forecasts will be lower than actual.
B.
Forecasts will be higher than actual.
C.
Forecasts will equal actual.
D.
Forecasts will be decreasing.
E.
Forecasts will be increasing by 5.0% every period.


12.
Which of the following is not typically done jointly by CPFR trading partners?
A.
set forecasts
B.
plan production
C.
replenish inventories
D.
raise capital
E.
evaluate their success in the marketplace


13.
Which of the following is not one of the nine steps utilized in the most complete form of CPFR?
A.
identify exceptions for order forecasts
B.
create a sales forecast
C.
create order forecast
D.
create separate business plans
E.
generate order


14.
Using the following data, what is the 3 month moving average forecast for June?
Jan = 7
Feb = 8
Mar = 6
Apr = 6
May = 5
A.
5.7
B.
1.2
C.
6.7
D.
7.0
E.
10.7


15.
In developing the linear regression line you need to calculate 'a' & 'b'. If b = 1.15 and Y mean is 3 and X mean is 5 what is 'a'?
A.
20.75
B.
13.04
C.
8.45
D.
7.75
E.
8.75



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